---
type: methodology
status: active
version: 0.1
created: 2026-06-15
source: Process.pdf §4
---

# Process

Standing methodology. Reference from every trade and every published note. If you change it, change it here once — and explain why in `90-archive/process-changelog.md`.

## 1. Overview

Treat this as a one-person macro pod with the same separation of functions a fund has:

```
research → structuring → execution → risk → reporting → archive
```

## 2. Coverage universe

Keep it small and liquid. 12-16 instruments. See [[Coverage Universe]] for the full list with correlation buckets and per-instrument notes.

| Group | Examples |
|---|---|
| Rates (futures) | SOFR (SR3), 2y/10y/30y UST (ZT/ZN/ZB), Schatz/Bund (Eurex) |
| FX (CME futures) | 6E (EUR), 6J (JPY), 6B (GBP), 6A (AUD); 6C/6M optional; 6S for USD/CHF view |
| Commodities | GC, SI, HG, CL; NG only if you accept the vol |
| Equity index | ES or MES, FESX — macro expression only |
| Monitored, not traded | DXY, VIX, gold/silver ratio, copper/gold, real yields, HY OAS, USD/CNH, BTC |

Trade the curve via spreads (2s10s in futures ratio).

## 3. Data and event coverage

**Tier 1 (always previewed and reviewed):** FOMC, US CPI, NFP, ECB, SNB, BoJ.
Preview = pricing into the event (OIS / fed funds futures implied), your skew vs consensus, positioning, trade plan.
Review = reaction analysis within 24h.

**Tier 2 (commented in weekly note):** ISM/PMIs, retail sales, PCE, Eurozone HICP, China credit/PMI, refunding announcements.

**Weekly structural data:** CFTC COT (Friday release, analyzed weekend), CTA positioning estimates, ETF flows for gold.

## 4. Trade lifecycle

Every trade gets an ID: `YYYY-NNN-SYMBOL-DIR` (e.g. `2026-014-GC-L`).

Four documents per trade:

### 4.1 Pre-trade thesis (1 page, written BEFORE entry, timestamped)

Required sections (use `_templates/thesis.md`):

- **Macro driver** — the regime shift or fact driving the view.
- **Technical assessment** — see [[../00-methodology/decision-process]]. State the checklist items that triggered this trade, the current reading on the per-instrument note, and the price/level at which the assessment resolves toward entry. Discretionary, not a systematic signal.
- **Structure** — outright vs spread vs option. Show you considered convexity/carry.
- **Entry / stop / target** — concrete levels, not "around."
- **Risk in bp of NAV** — must fall inside the 25-75bp band.
- **Invalidation condition** — a fact, not a price. Example: "if core CPI prints >0.4% the thesis is dead."
- **Expected holding period.**
- **Payoff scenarios** — bull / base / bear with probabilities.

### 4.2 Execution log

Order type, timestamp, fill, slippage vs intended level. UBS lesson: execution is a cost. Show it. (`_templates/execution-log.md`)

### 4.3 In-trade management log

Every adjustment with reason, dated. Predefine add/trim rules in the thesis; deviations get flagged as such. (`_templates/management-log.md`)

### 4.4 Post-mortem (within 48h of exit)

- Outcome vs thesis
- Process grade A–F **independent of P&L** (right process / bad outcome = B; bad process / good outcome = D)
- Luck vs skill attribution
- Lesson

(`_templates/postmortem.md`)

## 5. Routines

| Cadence | Time | Output | Time budget |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | evening or pre-7am | journal entry, stop/level check, calendar | 30-40 min |
| Weekly | weekend | COT analysis, chart pack, published weekly note, NAV update, week-ahead map | 3-4 h |
| Monthly | first weekend | NAV reconciliation, metrics table, monthly letter | 4-6 h |
| Quarterly | — | process audit: rule violations, post-mortem themes, one explicit process change, published | — |

**Total: ~8-10 h/week. If you can't sustain that, cut the universe, not the documentation.**

## 6. Published research format

Differentiation: CFA+CMT means macro narrative + market pricing + technical trigger + explicit trade structure, in one integrated piece. Few publish all four.

- **Weekly note (800-1,200 words, fixed skeleton):** (1) Regime dashboard — one table (growth/inflation/policy/positioning, each with direction arrow); (2) What changed this week — 3-4 paragraphs, data vs market pricing; (3) COT/positioning corner; (4) Chart of the week with momentum framework applied; (5) Book update — positions, P&L MTD, changes, with reasons; (6) Week ahead.
- **Event previews (400-600 words):** what's priced, your skew, asymmetry, the trade (or explicitly why no trade).
- **Trade initiations:** publish the pre-trade thesis nearly verbatim. The single most hiring-relevant content you'll produce.
- **Monthly letter (1,500-2,500 words):** numbers first, attribution honestly, one thematic section.

## 7. Immutability

Layered, cheap, standard:

1. **IBKR monthly Flex statements** — the real audit trail. Fund diligence will ask for these.
2. **Darwinex or FundSeeder** — links to your broker, publishes independently verified, risk-adjusted track record under an alias. Pseudonymous by default.
3. **OpenTimestamps** — hash every thesis / note PDF, anchor to Bitcoin. Free, one command, verifiable forever. Proves the thesis existed before the outcome.
4. **Git with signed commits** — pushed to a private GitHub repo, flip public later with history intact.
5. **Substack + X** — distribution. Substack edits are visible; weak proof alone — include each post's OpenTimestamps hash in the footer.

## 8. Anonymity with later reveal

Standard in this genre. See [[risk-framework#7. Anonymity]] for the operational rules and the PGP reveal mechanism.