# Block 024 — Target 2 Anki card draft (deferred push)

**Session:** 36 (2026-08-02)
**Anki status:** not reachable at session time — push at next session open or tonight.

## Card 1 — Borio framework direction binary

**Front:** In Borio's framework, the foreign CB intervention question reduces to what single discriminator?

**Back:** Cycle position. Augmenting the global USD cycle → works. Fighting the global USD cycle → default fail. The discriminator is whether the intervention is *with* or *against* the broad-dollar direction (Fed-driven, USD-led).

## Card 2 — Velocity vs direction

**Front:** Most CB interventions do not fight the *direction* of the global cycle. What do they fight instead?

**Back:** The *velocity* — the pace at which the cycle moves. The CB intervention is direction-augmenting but velocity-fighting: it lets the cycle direction persist but tries to dampen the speed. The BoJ 2011-2012 weakening (USD strong, BoJ weakening JPY further, augmenting direction) is the canonical case. The velocity-vs-direction distinction is the reason most interventions look framework-consistent on direction alone.

## Card 3 — Sub-cycle vs global cycle (SNB discriminator)

**Front:** The SNB 2011-2015 case (held 3.3 years against EUR/CHF floor) appears to violate the Borio "fighting the cycle fails" rule. How does the framework reconcile it?

**Back:** It doesn't violate — the SNB fought the *EUR sub-cycle* while augmenting the *global USD cycle* (which was in an anti-dollar phase post-2010). Sub-cycle fights while aligned with the global direction can succeed for years if commitment is unlimited. The SNB is the case where the framework *doesn't* predict default failure, because the SNB wasn't fighting the cycle Borio says matters.

## Card 4 — Commitment size moderates holding window, not direction

**Front:** What is the relationship between intervention commitment size and the Borio framework's default-fail prediction?

**Back:** Commitment size moderates the *holding window*, not the *direction of failure*. Unlimited commitment (SNB) can hold for years before the cycle overwhelms the CB's balance-sheet pain capacity. Capped commitment (BoJ 2022-2024 ~¥5T+, ECB 2000 ~$5-7bn) fails in days to weeks. The framework predicts the direction (default fail when fighting global); commitment size determines *how long before the fail*.
Note: Anki not reachable at 2026-08-02 session. Port 8765 has a generic HTTP server, not AnkiConnect. 4 Target 2 cards drafted to _session-state/2026-08-02-block-024-target-2-cards.md — push at next session open.