# Session 37 Resume — Block 025 (FX BIS data)

**Date:** 2026-08-02 (assigned at Session 36 close)
**Status:** Block 024 closed at Working+ (all 4 targets). Block 025 (FX BIS data) is next.

## Session 37 (2026-08-03) — NO-OP close

User opened session, said "I forgot, close the session now, mark as nothing done yet today and I will look at the pre-reads instead." No probes, no main material, no Anki push. **No-op close.** Pre-reads not started — user committed to read before next session.

**State for Session 38 open:** Block 025 still ● current. Pre-reads remain assigned (BIS Triennial 2025 + 2022 + 2019). 33 cards in FX deck (unchanged). No demoted items. No pending Anki push.

## What's locked from Session 36 (Block 024 close)

**Block 024 fully closed at Working+ across all four targets:**

1. **Target 1 (Session 34, 2026-07-27):** swap-line mechanics + history + 4 systemic criteria + post-2013 PM edge. 8 cards.
2. **Target 2 (Session 36, 2026-08-02):** Borio cycle-position framework (augmenting = works, fighting = default fail) + velocity-vs-direction refinement (user contribution) + sub-cycle vs global cycle (SNB 2011-2015) + commitment size moderates holding window. 4 cards.
3. **Target 3 (Session 36, 2026-08-02):** Tier 1 vs Tier 2 architecture ((B) moral-hazard/political = primary) + speed ≠ architecture (March 2020 was 9 parallel episodic processes) + coordination = stress × political judgment. 3 cards.
4. **Target 4 (Session 36, 2026-08-02):** Fed tool choice = diagnostic + draw-size discriminator + basis-as-diagnostic cap. 3 cards.

**33 atomic Anki cards in FX deck total. 18 cards pushed in Block 024 (8 Target 1 + 4 Target 2 + 3 Target 3 + 3 Target 4).**

**Substrate additions load-bearing for Block 025:**
- Tier 1 vs Tier 2 architecture (5 standing CBs vs 9 episodic EMs)
- Borio cycle-position framework (USD-centric, sub-cycles are symptoms)
- Coordination = stress × political judgment
- Diagnostic cap: cross-currency basis is a diagnostic, not a trade

## Block 025 pre-reads (assigned 2026-08-02, Session 36 close; updated 2026-08-02 to use 2025 as primary)

- **Source 1 (PRIMARY):** BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey 2025 — full commentary (final, June 2026 release). Focus: global FX turnover $9.6T/day (+28% from 2022), instrument composition (FX swap share, spot share), currency participation (USD dominance, CNY rise), 2025 trade-policy context (~15-20 min, [thematic]). URL: https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx25_fx.htm
- **Source 2:** BIS Triennial 2022 — full commentary (final). For 2022→2025 comparison ($7.5T/day, +14% from 2019, FX swap $3.8T, USD on 88% of trades). What changed between 2022 and 2025? (~10-15 min, [thematic])
- **Source 3:** BIS Triennial 2019 — Executive Summary. For the structural pre-COVID + 2019-triennial "low-vol baseline" before the 2020 stress and 2022-2025 USD-strength era (~10 min, [thematic])
- **Skip:** Detailed FX options volume (Block 029), detailed OTC IRD data (Block 014 covered), EM FX detail (Block 028), full BIS Triennial econometric methodology.

**Total: ~35-45 min, [thematic].**

## What's pending in Block 025

**Targets (to be defined at next session open per 2026-07-03 protocol):**
- Target 1 (likely): BIS Triennial methodology + how to read the data (survey mechanics, what gets measured, what's missing)
- Target 2 (likely): Instrument composition trends (FX swap growth, spot share decline, outright forward stability)
- Target 3 (likely): Currency participation trends (USD dominance, RMB rise, JPY/EUR share evolution)
- Target 4 (likely): PM implications — what does BIS data tell you about the cross-currency basis substrate from Block 023/024? Is the BIS data consistent with the Tier 1 vs Tier 2 architecture?

**Carry-forwards from Block 024 into Block 025:**
1. **Tier 1 vs Tier 2 architecture** (Block 024 Target 3) — BIS data should be consistent with the tiering (Tier 1 = deep FX swap markets in G10 majors; Tier 2 = shallower EMs). Will check whether BIS data validates the (B) moral-hazard argument.
2. **FX swap dominance** (Block 014) — FX swap is the largest single instrument in BIS Triennial ($3.8T/day in 2022; $X.XT/day in 2025 — to be verified). Block 025 should cover the trend and what drives it (carry trade, hedging demand, dealer balance-sheet capacity).
3. **Sub-cycle vs global cycle** (Block 024 Target 2) — BIS data on FX swap turnover by currency pair would be the empirical validation of the framework.
4. **Carry-vs-basis population distinction** (Block 023 Target 3) — BIS data on who uses FX swap (carry traders vs hedged investors) would discriminate the two populations empirically.

**Teaching-module reference update pending at next session open:** existing teaching modules (Block 014, 023, 024) cite 2022 BIS numbers. At next session open, mentor will update those references to 2025 numbers so substrate is consistent.

**Block 025 `## Plan` section still empty** — needs to be written at next session close of prior block per 2026-06-23 convention. (The current prior-block close is Session 37 NO-OP — no new pre-reads or plan to assign because Block 025's pre-reads are already in `pre-reads.md` and the target structure is to be defined at next open.)

## Cold-recall items NOT touched in Session 36 (re-drill queue for next session)

None. Block 024 Targets 2-4 all landed clean on first or second probe. Slip pattern was mentor-side (BoJ direction, 2008 vs 2020 stress-distribution), not learner-side.

## Anki cards

10 pushed in Session 36 (4 Target 2 + 3 Target 3 + 3 Target 4, notes 1785671815826-1785673791081), all atomic, all substrate-verified. **Total FX deck: 33 cards.**

## Process rules filed (Session 36)

- **Confirmation-loop vs teaching-loop:** when probe pushbacks teach the mentor instead of surfacing user substrate gaps, close out, don't grind locked substrate.
- **One-at-a-time probe discipline:** when user signals multi-question overload, restart with Q1 only.
- **AnkiConnect port: 6565, not 8765.** Push via curl.

## Directive for next session

1. **Pre-reads first.** User committed to read pre-reads before next session. Per 2026-07-17 convention, pre-reads accepted on user word at session open — no per-source verification. If user reads and reports done, proceed to vocabulary probes.
2. If user asks for teach-first substitution (per 2026-07-15 S33-side convention), deliver full substrate teach with transition probes instead of pre-read.
3. Open with Block 025 pre-block probes (per Block 023 protocol: causal-mechanism probes, not fact-recall). 5-7 vocabulary items + 1 transition probe.
4. Targets: methodology → instrument composition → currency participation → PM implications.
5. **Teaching-module reference update** at next session open: Blocks 014/023/024 cite 2022 BIS numbers — update to 2025 numbers.
6. **Block 025 `## Plan` section** to be filled at next session close (per 2026-06-23 convention).
7. Anki cards + competence map + coverage tracker updates at block close.
8. Block 026 (FX drivers / carry unwind regime) is next after Block 025.