---
session_id: 2026-10-04-block-033-close
date: 2026-10-04
block: 033
block_name: Credit default cycle + lag
phase: Phase 1 (Credit)
status: ● closed
session_closed_clean: true
next_block: 034 (Credit as cycle tell)
---

# 2026-10-04 — Block 033 close (canonical pointer)

First teach-first block (adjustments.md rule 17). Teach source-verified; probes 4/4 Working+; 6 cards pushed + synced.

## Open items at next session open (Block 034)

1. **Cold-recall re-probes** on Block 033 Anki cards (spread-leads-defaults legs; dispersion timing discriminator) — teach-substrate decays faster, guardrail 2.
2. Dispersion-threshold candidate (1500+ CCC−BB): anchor to historical distribution or drop.
3. Teach-first open on Block 034: verify SLOOS series ID on FRED before teach; then 3-4 applied probes → main material (credit impulse vs level; SLOOS plumbing-side tell; live cross-check vs equity tape).

## Carry-forwards

process_notes:
  - Teach-first worked: session shape held (teach ~15 min, 4 probes + 1 live probe). Source-verify-before-teach cost ~2 tool calls per block.
  - User's series-skepticism (flagging 1.34% delinquency peak as historically low) = check-ordering discipline transferring to data series. Reinforce.
  - Anki DB flush lag: negative-usn file check can be inconclusive same-session; API findNotes + sync-clean is the same-session standard, file-level usn check only when DB flushed.