# Block 004 — Term premium

**Status:** ✓ done
**Phase:** Phase 1 (Rates)

## Topic scope

Term premium definition and drivers. ACM vs Kim-Wright methodology. Bernanke 2015 'Why Are Interest Rates So Low?' — three explanations (secular stagnation, savings glut, term premium compression) + dominant driver (TP compression, not savings glut). 2005 vs 2015 framing contrast.

## Session history

**Block 004 — Term premium**

**2026-06-22 (Session 2, W26 Mon):** 250/−50/+50 swing recited by heart. Decomposition arithmetic clean.

**2026-06-23 (Session 3, W26 Tue):** L-S vs term-premium distinction now in Anki (statistical vs economic decomposition).

**2026-06-25 (Session 5, W26 Thu) — Bernanke 2015 drill:** Three explanations named (secular stagnation, savings glut, term premium). Dominant driver initially wrong (said savings glut); re-probed and corrected.

**2026-06-26 (Session 6, W26 Fri) — Drill-first wrap-up:** Bernanke 2015 dominant driver drill landed at Working+. TP compression dominant articulated, 2005 savings-glut contrast landed. Status moved Working → **Strong**.

**Anki cards:** 6+ cards — TP decomposition, swing numbers, dominance comparison, L-S vs TP distinction, Bernanke 2015 dominant driver (tagged `weakness`). Status: **Strong** since 2026-06-26.

**Verification flag for Block 007:** Direction kink on TP-hierarchy → trade-structure framing (re-probe Saturday). "TP at high end → long-end richly valued" framing inverted; correct: TP high → long-end cheap → long-duration bias; flattener only if 10y TP > 30y TP.

See `../session-log.md` for detailed session entries.

See `../session-log.md` for detailed session entries.