# Block 033 — Credit default cycle + lag

**Status:** ○ queued
**Phase:** Phase 1 (Credit)

## Topic scope

Peak spreads lead peak defaults 6-9 months. Default cycle as recession tell. HY default rate vs spread history.

## Plan

_(Filled at session close of prior block, per 2026-06-23 convention.)_

## Carry-forward to next block

_(Filled at session close.)_