# Curriculum — Macro Study Program

100h+ baseline, adaptive, no hard ceiling. Bottom-up. Six phases.

**Expertise over speed (user-set 2026-06-25, restructured 2026-06-26).** No content is skipped to meet a calendar deadline. Topic blocks are extended until all sub-topics land at Working+ per `adjustments.md` rule 11 (verification gate). The program length is determined by content coverage, not a calendar target. The goal is expert-level command, not finishing the program in N blocks.

**Block-based architecture (added 2026-06-26; refined 2026-08-09).** The program is a sequence of topic blocks (each roughly day-sized). Blocks live in `blocks/` and are numbered sequentially. There are no week labels, no specific-day references, no fixed cadence — the user elects how many blocks to cover per session based on time/energy. Verification blocks (every 5-7 content blocks) consolidate the prior batch. **Active block pointer lives in `_session-state/<DATE>-resume.md` frontmatter (single source of truth, Session 41 triage 2026-08-09).** `_meta/current-block.md` was deleted.

## Phase 1 — Components (variable, 40-80h+)

Per asset class: full coverage of what moves it, how to read it, primary data sources, the indicators that actually matter, AND the cross-asset linkages that involve it. Cross-asset linkages get proper treatment in Phase 3 — Phase 1 covers only the linkages that are intrinsic to understanding the asset class itself (e.g., rates ↔ funding mechanics for Rates, not rates ↔ equities for cross-asset).

### Phase 1 block sequence (restructured 2026-06-30)

| Block range | Topic | Phase 1 sub-topics |
|---|---|---|
| **00a** | Process foundations (rubric) | 8 required sections of pre-trade thesis per process.md §4.1; trade-construction checks; two-trigger rule; trade ID convention |
| **00b** | Process foundations (anti-patterns) | 7 standard anti-patterns per anti-patterns.md; what-it-looks-like / why-feels-right / why-wrong / replacement-behavior; quarterly process audit |
| **001-006** | Rates | Items 1-6: term structure, real vs nominal, curve dynamics, term premium, Taper Tantrum case study, CFTC positioning |
| **007** | Rates (verification) | Batch 1 verification (001-006) + batch synthesis note |
| **008-014** | Rates | Items 7-13: carry & roll-down, curve trade mechanics (re-runs after 00a/00b), yield vol, MBS basis, SOFR/OIS, breakeven decomposition, cross-currency basis |
| **015** | Rates (verification) | Batch 2 verification (008-014) + batch synthesis note |
| **016-021** | Rates | Items 14-20: Fed comms, curve regime, auction calendar, positioning beyond CFTC, ACM/KW in practice, historical case studies |
| **022** | Rates (verification) | Phase 1 rates closeout (verification of 001-021) + Phase 1 rates synthesis note |
| **023-029** | FX | CIP/UIP, CB reaction function, BIS data, FX drivers, carry trades, intervention mechanics, regime classification |
| **030** | FX (verification) | Phase 1 FX closeout |
| **031-036** | Credit | HY/IG spreads, OAS, default cycle, credit as cycle tell, ETF flows, leveraged loan / private credit |
| **037** | Credit (verification) | Phase 1 Credit closeout |
| **038-042** | Equities | Index construction, sector rotation, positioning, valuation, vol surface |
| **043** | Equities (verification) | Phase 1 Equities closeout |
| **044-048** | Commodities | Term structure, energy/metals/ags, EIA/API, OPEC+, COT methodology |
| **049** | Commodities (verification) | Phase 1 Commodities closeout |
| **050-051** | Cross-link | Rates cross-link review, Phase 1 closeout |

### Why Rates is multiple blocks (not 1) — rationale

The original plan allocated one week to Rates (term structure, real vs nominal, curve dynamics, term premium, key data — five items). The full list of load-bearing topics for Rates command is 20 items per the 2026-06-25 audit. Rates is now 20 content blocks + 3 verification blocks (blocks 001-022). Each block is roughly day-sized; the user may cover more or fewer blocks per session based on time/energy.

Cross-asset linkages involving Rates (rates ↔ FX, rates ↔ credit, rates ↔ equities, rates ↔ commodities) are deferred to Phase 3 — proper treatment, not crammed. Blocks 050-051 are the rates cross-link bridge: any rates material that surfaces during Phase 3 setup gets pulled back into the rates block rather than assumed.

### Verification standard for each block

Per `adjustments.md` rules 11-13:
- All sub-topics for the block land at Working+ before moving to next block
- Verification blocks (007, 015, 022, 030, 037, 043, 049, 051) consolidate prior batch
- No silent carry-forward of Weak items across block boundaries
- If a topic needs more time, the block extends — not the topic compressed

Each block's minimum deliverable: one vault artifact where appropriate (per-instrument note update for instrument blocks, batch synthesis note for verification blocks, or similar). The mentor reviews per the existing cron.

## Phase 2 — Deep instrument dives (20-40h, variable)

Deep dossiers on the highest-priority instruments. Sequence starts with the four priorities (Equity futures, Gold, Oil, Rates) per user instruction, then expands to all 12-16 traded instruments and the monitored set.

### Phase 2 block sequence

| Block | Instrument | Symbol | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| **052** | S&P 500 Micro E-mini | ES/MES | Traded |
| **053** | Gold | GC | Traded |
| **054** | Crude Oil WTI | CL | Traded |
| **055** | 10y UST | ZN | Traded |
| **056** | 2y UST | ZT | Traded |
| **057** | 30y UST | ZB | Traded |
| **058** | SOFR 3M | SR3 | Traded |
| **059** | Bund | FGBL | Traded |
| **060** | Schatz | FGBS | Traded |
| **061** | EuroStoxx 50 | FESX | Traded |
| **062** | EUR-USD | 6E | Traded |
| **063** | JPY-USD | 6J | Traded |
| **064** | GBP-USD | 6B | Traded |
| **065** | AUD-USD | 6A | Traded |
| **066** | CAD-USD | 6C | Traded |
| **067** | CHF-USD | 6S | Traded |
| **068** | MXN-USD | 6M | Traded |
| **069** | Copper | HG | Traded |
| **070** | Silver | SI | Traded |
| **071** | Natural Gas | NG | Traded |
| **072** | Phase 2 verification | — | — |

Per-instrument dossier structure (appended to `06-universe/traded/<TICKER>.md` or `06-universe/monitored/<TICKER>.md`):
- Mechanics: contract specs, margin, tick size, settlement
- Microstructure: who trades it, when, liquidity profile
- Drivers: what moves it (factors + weighting)
- Positioning: COT, ETF flows, dealer positioning
- Seasonality / cyclical patterns
- Historical episodes: 2-3 case studies per instrument
- Cross-asset linkages: how it correlates with other instruments, regime-dependentely

## Phase 3 — Cross-asset linkages (25-40h, variable)

The major macro expressions are cross-asset. Topics:
- Rates ↔ FX (covered interest parity, basis trades, USD funding)
- Real yields ↔ Gold (the cleanest cross-asset signal)
- Oil ↔ Equities (energy as input cost; oil as cycle tell)
- Credit ↔ Equities (risk-on/risk-off, default cycle → equity vol)
- USD ↔ Everything (DXY as macro proxy, regime-dependent correlations)
- Reflux vs correlation (when does selling force selling?)

### Phase 3 block sequence

| Block | Topic |
|---|---|
| **073** | Rates ↔ FX (CIP basis in practice) |
| **074** | Real yields ↔ Gold |
| **075** | Oil ↔ Equities |
| **076** | Credit ↔ Equities |
| **077** | USD ↔ Everything |
| **078** | Reflux vs correlation |
| **079** | Phase 3 verification |

## Phase 4 — Macro framework (25-35h, variable)

Regime identification, cycle position, positioning & reflexivity, liquidity plumbing, case studies.

### Phase 4 block sequence

| Block | Topic |
|---|---|
| **080** | Regime identification |
| **081** | Cycle position |
| **082** | Positioning & reflexivity |
| **083** | Liquidity plumbing |
| **084** | Historical case studies (2008 GFC, 2013 Taper Tantrum, 2015 CHF, 2020 COVID, 2022 rates shock) |
| **085** | Phase 4 verification |

## Phase 5 — Process & behavioral (10-20h, variable)

Decision process rubric, anti-patterns, postmortem grading, drawdown protocol, behavioral biases, risk framework.

### Phase 5 block sequence

| Block | Topic |
|---|---|
| **086** | Decision process rubric |
| **087** | Anti-patterns |
| **088** | Postmortem grading |
| **089** | Drawdown protocol |
| **090** | Behavioral biases |
| **091** | Phase 5 verification |

## Phase 6 — Synthesis & ongoing

Starts when the user begins live trades that exercise the material. Weekly review of decisions, weekly note drafts, Anki reps as the retention layer. No end.

## Post-completion (Phase 7+, DRAFT — activates when core complete)

`post-completion.md` holds topic areas that are absolutely relevant for a world-class discretionary macro PM but require core as foundation. Topics include trade construction & execution, strategy & idea generation, firm-level risk, business & operations, client management, information edge, behavioral mastery, historical mastery case studies, EM deep dive, and advanced vol. **Not pre-committed blocks** — topic pool activated at user discretion after core (block 091) closes.

## Core is dynamic (per user's 2026-06-26 standard)

The core curriculum (blocks 001-091) is **expandable and contractable** based on demonstrated competence. Per `adjustments.md` rules 1-7:
- Weak areas get additional blocks (added to the sequence, not appended)
- Mastered areas get compressed or skipped
- The user explicitly stated: "the core material should remain dynamic and can be both expanded and contracted depending on which skills are weak or strong."

This means the block numbers (001-091) are **starting scaffolding**, not fixed slots. New blocks can be inserted mid-sequence (e.g., 003a for a weak sub-topic within curve dynamics). Block numbers are renumbered as needed when insertions happen. The user's competence map is the source of truth for what core covers.

## Reading material (Tier 1 — required)

See `05-data/reading-list.md`. Organized by phase. Each block's reading is named in the active block's plan section.

## Reading material (Tier 2 — depth on demand)

See `05-data/reading-list.md`. Recommended for blocks where the user demonstrates strength and wants to go deeper.

## Reading material (Tier 3 — always-available reference)

See `05-data/reading-list.md`. Pulled on demand when a specific topic comes up in a live trade.