# Weakness Register — Macro Study Program

## Confirmed gaps

### Schedule doctrine (added 2026-06-26)

The "When to re-probe" column below is **block-relative, not calendar-relative.** Topic blocks advance per `adjustments.md` rule 11 (verification gate) — all sub-topics at Working+ before the next block opens. Block numbers in `curriculum.md` are orientation only; the calendar doesn't drive the program. No silent calendar advance. Backlog items unaddressed 4+ blocks get flagged by verification blocks per `adjustments.md` rule 16.

### 2026-06-21 — Calibration Session 1 (28 probes)

Logged during Session 1 calibration. Re-probe cadence per `adjustments.md`.

| Topic | Status | When to re-probe |
|---|---|---|
| Rates — real vs nominal decomposition | Working | Re-probed Session 2 — landed |
| Rates — term premium magnitude | Strong | Re-probed Session 6 — moved to Strong |
| Rates — curve dynamics (butterfly, dur/curve) | Strong | Re-probed Sessions 2, 3 — landed |
| FX — CIP / UIP | Weak | Block 023 (FX topic block start) |
| FX — central bank reaction function | Weak | Block 024 (FX topic block, day 2) |
| FX — drivers / carry unwind regime | Weak | Block 026 (FX topic block) |
| Credit — default cycle + lag | Weak | Block 033 (Credit topic block) |
| Equities — sector rotation framework | Weak | Block 039 (Equities topic block) |
| Equities — positioning interpretation | Weak | Block 040 (Equities topic block) |
| Commodities — term structure mechanism | Weak | Block 044 (Commodities topic block) |
| Commodities — energy/metals/ags distinction | Weak | Block 045 (Commodities topic block) |
| Framework — regime identification | Weak | Block 080 (Phase 4 first block) |
| Framework — cycle position | Weak | Block 081 (Phase 4 first block) |
| Framework — liquidity plumbing | Weak | Block 083 (Phase 4 first block) |
| Process — decision process rubric (own docs) | Weak | Block 00a (Phase 1 first block; **first teach**) + Block 086 (verification + edge cases) |
| Process — anti-patterns (vault gap too) | Weak → Working | Block 00b (Phase 1 second block; **first teach**) + Block 087 (verification + new patterns); `anti-patterns.md` created 2026-06-21 (v0.1) |
| Process — drawdown protocol (own docs) | Resolved (framework rewrite 2026-07-02) | No block teaches this; the v0.3 framework removed the drawdown protocol entirely in favor of per-trade stop + weekly review. Block 089 (verification) deferred pending Q3 2026 audit per `risk-framework.md` §5. |
| Instrument — ES/MES contract specs | Weak | Block 052 (Phase 2 — ES dossier) |
| Instrument — CL supply drivers + EIA series | Weak | Block 054 (Phase 2 — CL dossier) |
| Instrument — ZN contract specs | Weak | Block 055 (Phase 2 — ZN dossier) |

### Vault gaps surfaced (and resolutions)

- **`00-methodology/anti-patterns.md`** — referenced by macro-mentor skill but doesn't exist. 7 standard anti-patterns documented in session log.
  - **2026-06-21 (resolved):** File created at `00-methodology/anti-patterns.md` (v0.1). 7 anti-patterns with full structure. To revisit/refine during Phase 5 process study (Block 087).

### Session 7 (2026-06-26) — Block 007 verification carry-forward

| Item | Original status | Resolution | Current status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taper Tantrum PC3-emergence mechanism | Weak (Session 6) | Catalyst direction landed; PC3-emergence via observable pattern (wings opposite body). Full causal mechanism (flight-to-quality compressing 30y TP + hawkish Fed repricing expanding belly TP) not fully traced. | Working (carry-forward if case study recurs) |
| Bernanke direction kink (TP-hierarchy → trade-structure framing) | Weak (Session 6) | Direction framing fixed. TP high → long-end cheap/undervalued. Flattener when 10y TP > 30y TP; steepener when 30y TP > 10y TP. | Strong |
| Taper Tantrum instrument selection | Weak (Session 5) | Butterfly reflex cleared; 10s30s flattener chosen correctly. | Working (since Session 6) |

## Resolved

_(Dated entries. Each: original gap, what unblocked it, date.)_

### 2026-06-22 — Rates real vs nominal decomposition
- Original: Weak (Cal S1: wrong on dominant mover — said inflation exp, actual is real yields/term premium)
- Unblocked by: Session 2 drill block 1 (2026-06-22), full decomposition recited cold; arithmetic clean
- Status: Working (since 2026-06-22)

### 2026-07-01 — Block 00a (Session 10) status transitions

| Topic | Old → New | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Process — decision process rubric | Weak → Working | Cold list Working+; trade walk Working with §5 framework violation (gold short 250bp = 3.3x ceiling); trade ID Strong; two-trigger Working+ with real COT data. Re-probe Block 086 |
| Process — anti-patterns | Weak → Untested → Working | Vault gap resolved 2026-06-21 (file exists, 7 patterns). First teach = Block 00b (2026-07-02): 7/7 cold recall, 3-position audit, quarterly protocol structured. Anki cards on gold pricing-vs-narrative generated (atomic). |

### 2026-06-22 — Rates term premium magnitude
- Original: Weak (Cal S1: called it "minor part" — empirically false)
- Unblocked by: Session 2 drill block 1 (2026-06-22), 250/−50/+50 swing recited by heart; Session 6 drill (2026-06-26) landed at Working+
- Status: Strong (since 2026-06-26)

### 2026-06-22 — Rates curve dynamics
- Original: Working (Cal S1: missed butterfly, missed duration-vs-curve distinction)
- Unblocked by: Session 2 drill block 2 (2026-06-22), duration-vs-curve + butterfly mechanics articulated
- Status: Strong (since 2026-06-23)

### 2026-06-26 — Taper Tantrum instrument selection
- Original: Weak (Session 5: butterfly reflex when no PC3 present — anti-pattern)
- Unblocked by: Session 6 drill block 2 (2026-06-26), butterfly rejected, 10s30s flattener chosen correctly
- Status: Working (since 2026-06-26)

### 2026-07-02 — Risk framework v0.3 rewrite
- Original: Process — drawdown protocol (Weak since 2026-06-21 calibration — user gave wrong numbers vs own `risk-framework.md` on the -5/-10/-15 ladder)
- Resolution: User rewrote the framework in Session 12, 2026-07-02. Per-trade 25-75bp → 200bp; portfolio 250bp → 1000bp; -5/-10/-15 drawdown ladder removed entirely (replaced by per-trade stop discipline + weekly review for drift catch). The original Weak item is moot — the content no longer exists in the framework. The new content (200bp/trade, 1000bp cap, 5-position / 2-per-theme, weekly review cadence) is in `00-methodology/risk-framework.md` v0.3.
- Status: Resolved (framework rewrite; no teaching block required for the old ladder)

## Strengths to leverage

### 2026-06-21 — Calibration Session 1

- **Reflexivity (Sorossian two-way causality).** User articulates the core mechanism + gives clean example (USD strength reinforcing). Don't drill basics — go straight to overshoot/boom-bust nuance when revisiting.
- **Postmortem philosophy (skill vs luck).** User captured the key insight — especially important on winners. Don't drill basics; go to process grade A-F and luck-attribution methodology.
- **Equities index construction (concentration risk).** Got the mag-7 concentration point + cap-weighting mechanics. Standard coverage going forward; don't dwell on basics.