# Reading List — Macro Study Program

Organized by tier. Each block's reading is named in the active block's plan section (`blocks/<block-id>.md`).

## Tier 1 — Required reading (per phase)

### Phase 1: Components

**Rates**:
- Litterman-Scheinkman (1991) — "Understanding the Yield Curve" (the duration-convexity framework)
- BIS Quarterly Review — most recent issue on yield curve dynamics
- Bernanke (2015) — "Why Are Interest Rates So Low?" (term premium)

**FX**:
- Kenen (1985) textbook chapters 1-4 (mechanics, CIP, UIP)
- BIS Triennial Survey methodology paper (most recent)
- Krugman (1991) — "Currency Crisis Theory" (the balance-sheet approach)

**Credit**:
- Altman / NYU Salomon Center default studies (most recent annual)
- BofA US High Yield Series — methodology + recent weekly
- Moody's/S&P default + recovery studies

**Equities**:
- Damodaran valuation lectures (free online at NYU)
- Brunnermeier on liquidity (selected papers)

**Commodities**:
- 3 recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (read cold)
- 1 recent IEA Monthly Oil Market Report
- CFTC COT report methodology + recent positioning

### Phase 2: Deep instruments

Per-instrument reading lists generated as each dossier begins.

### Phase 3: Cross-asset

- Burnside, Eichenbaum & Rebelo (2007) — "The Behavior of Exchange Rates" (FX carry)
- Erb & Harvey (2006) — "The Tactical and Strategic Value of Commodity Futures"
- Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen (2009) — "Value and Momentum Everywhere"
- Various BIS papers on cross-asset correlation regimes

### Phase 4: Macro framework

- Soros (1987) — *The Alchemy of Finance* (reflexivity, the chapter on boom-bust)
- Dalio (2018) — *Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises* (cycle chapters)
- Lowenstein (2000) — *When Genius Failed* (LTCM autopsy)
- BIS Annual Economic Report (most recent)
- Michael Lebowitz — *The Liquidity Framework* papers

### Phase 5: Process & behavioral

- Howard Marks memos (specific ones — see below)
- Annie Duke — *Thinking in Bets*
- Kahneman — *Thinking, Fast and Slow* (selective chapters: 1, 3, 9-13, 28)
- "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (re-read annually)

## Tier 2 — Depth on demand

- Kyle Bass / Hayman Capital letters (2008-2012, the Japan/JGB thesis)
- Druckenmiller interview transcripts (post-Duquesne, 2016+)
- Stanley Druckenmiller at Sohn 2022 (8-minute presentation)
- Michael Lebowitz / 360 Funds pieces on liquidity
- Mandelbrot (2004) — *The Misbehavior of Markets* (selective chapters on fat tails)
- Tourre bubble discussion papers (2007-2008)

## Tier 4 — Post-completion (activates when core closes; see `00-methodology/study-program/post-completion.md`)

Full reading lists live in four companion documents in `~/` (root, not in vault — they're large):

| Document | Sections | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| `post_completion_reading_list.md` | B, C, E, G, H | Strategy/idea gen, firm risk, capital raising, behavioral, historical case studies |
| `post_completion_ADFK.md` | A, D, F, K | Trade construction, business/ops (Swiss), information edge, optional |
| `post_completion_J.md` | J | Advanced vol |
| `em_macro_reading_list/em_deep_dive_reading_list.md` | I | EM deep dive (China, BOJ, EM FX, country crises) |

These four documents cover the full post-completion topic pool (sections A–K in `post-completion.md`). Activate selectively when core (block 091) closes.

### Buy-first shortlist (the "must own" shelf regardless of which post-completion topics activate)

- Thorp — *The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion* (A.1)
- Harris — *Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners* (A.2)
- Pettis — *The Great Rebalancing* (I.1)
- Makoff — *Default* (I.4)
- Sheng & Ng — *Shadow Banking in China* (I.1)
- Koo — *Balance Sheet Recession* (I.2)
- Prasad — *The Dollar Trap* (I.3)
- Rebonato — *Volatility and Correlation* (J.2)
- Castagna — *FX Options and Smile Risk* (J.4)
- Dalio — *Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises* (B.1; free PDF at principles.com)
- Tooze — *Crashed* (H.3)
- Soros — *The Alchemy of Finance* (B.2; reflexivity tradecraft)

Plus these **free primary-source stacks** that beat any book on their respective topics:
- BIS Central Bankers' Speeches hub (F.2) + BIS Quarterly Review + BIS Working Papers
- IMF Article IV staff reports for every EM country (I.4)
- Cboe methodology papers for vol surface + variance swaps (J.1, J.2)
- Lucca & Moench + NY Fed SR 512 on pre-FOMC drift (J.3)
- Federal Reserve Review of SVB Supervision (H.9) + BoE SWP 1019 (H.8) + SNB Jordan speeches (H.5)

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## Tier 3 — Always-available reference

- "Market Wizards" series (Schwager) — trader psychology
- CFA Level III curriculum (derivatives pricing, for the math)
- Hull — *Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives* (reference for derivatives math)
- Kolb — *Futures, Options, and Swaps* (reference)

## Howard Marks memos — specific recommendations

The full memo archive is at https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo. Priority readings:
- "The Most Important Thing" (2011) — distillates the whole framework
- "It Is What It Is" (2018) — on second-level thinking
- "The Last Investor Standing" (2009) — on cycles
- "Welcome to the Show" (2009) — on bubble behaviorately
- "The Illusion of Knowledge" (2016) — on what we don't knowale