meta:
  timezone: Europe/Zurich
  generated: 2026-06-15
  horizon: 2026-06-15 to 2027-06-30
  description: |
    Hand-maintained source of truth for the macro event calendar.
    Edit this file, then run scripts/calendar_sync.py to regenerate
    07-calendar/macro-book.ics. See 07-calendar/MAINTENANCE.md for the workflow.

    Tier mapping per Process.pdf section 3:
      tier1   = FOMC, US CPI, NFP, ECB, SNB, BoJ (always previewed + reviewed)
      tier2   = ISM, retail sales, PCE, Eurozone HICP, China credit/PMI, refunding
      structural = COT (weekly), gold ETF flows (daily)

reminder_defaults:
  tier1: ["P7D", "P1D", "PT1H"]
  tier2: ["P1D"]
  structural: ["PT12H"]

events:
  # =============================================================================
  # TIER 1 — Central bank rate decisions
  # =============================================================================

  - id: fomc-2026-07-29
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-07-29
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    notes: "Press conference at 14:30 ET"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2026-09-16
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision + SEP"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-16
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    notes: "Summary of Economic Projections + press conference"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2026-10-28
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-10-28
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2026-12-09
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision + SEP"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-09
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    notes: "Summary of Economic Projections + press conference"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2027-01-27
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-01-27
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2027-03-17
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision + SEP"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-03-17
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2027-04-28
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-04-28
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: fomc-2027-06-09
    name: "FOMC Rate Decision + SEP"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-06-09
    time: "14:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    categories: [rates, us, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2026-07-23
    name: "ECB Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-07-23
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    notes: "Press conference at 13:45 CET"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2026-09-10
    name: "ECB Rate Decision + Macroeconomic Projections"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-10
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    notes: "Macroeconomic projections round"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2026-10-29
    name: "ECB Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-10-29
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2026-12-17
    name: "ECB Rate Decision + Macroeconomic Projections"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-17
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    notes: "Macroeconomic projections round"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2027-02-05
    name: "ECB Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-02-05
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2027-03-19
    name: "ECB Rate Decision + Macroeconomic Projections"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-03-19
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2027-04-30
    name: "ECB Rate Decision"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-04-30
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: ecb-2027-06-11
    name: "ECB Rate Decision + Macroeconomic Projections"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-06-11
    time: "13:15"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html"
    categories: [rates, eurozone, central-bank]

  - id: snb-2026-09-24
    name: "SNB Monetary Policy Assessment"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-24
    time: "09:30"
    tz_source: Europe/Zurich
    source: "https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule"
    notes: "Press conference at 10:00 CET"
    categories: [rates, switzerland, central-bank]

  - id: snb-2026-12-10
    name: "SNB Monetary Policy Assessment"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-10
    time: "09:30"
    tz_source: Europe/Zurich
    source: "https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule"
    categories: [rates, switzerland, central-bank]

  - id: snb-2027-03-18
    name: "SNB Monetary Policy Assessment"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-03-18
    time: "09:30"
    tz_source: Europe/Zurich
    source: "https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule"
    categories: [rates, switzerland, central-bank]

  - id: snb-2027-06-24
    name: "SNB Monetary Policy Assessment"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-06-24
    time: "09:30"
    tz_source: Europe/Zurich
    source: "https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule"
    categories: [rates, switzerland, central-bank]

  - id: boj-2026-07-31
    name: "BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Decision)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-07-31
    time: "12:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Tokyo
    source: "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm"
    categories: [rates, japan, central-bank]

  - id: boj-2026-09-18
    name: "BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Decision)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-18
    time: "12:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Tokyo
    source: "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm"
    categories: [rates, japan, central-bank]

  - id: boj-2026-10-30
    name: "BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Decision + Outlook Report)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-10-30
    time: "12:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Tokyo
    source: "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm"
    notes: "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices"
    categories: [rates, japan, central-bank]

  - id: boj-2026-12-18
    name: "BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Decision)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-18
    time: "12:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Tokyo
    source: "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm"
    categories: [rates, japan, central-bank]

# =============================================================================
# TIER 1 — US data (CPI, NFP)
# =============================================================================

  - id: cpi-2026-07-14
    name: "US CPI (June 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-07-14
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2026-08-12
    name: "US CPI (July 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-08-12
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2026-09-11
    name: "US CPI (August 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-11
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2026-10-14
    name: "US CPI (September 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-10-14
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2026-11-10
    name: "US CPI (October 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-11-10
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2026-12-10
    name: "US CPI (November 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-10
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: cpi-2027-01-13
    name: "US CPI (December 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-01-13
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm"
    status: projected
    notes: "BLS publishes 2027 schedule in Q4 2026 — verify before month"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-07-02
    name: "US Employment Situation (June 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-07-02
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-08-07
    name: "US Employment Situation (July 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-08-07
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-09-04
    name: "US Employment Situation (August 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-09-04
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-10-02
    name: "US Employment Situation (September 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-10-02
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-11-06
    name: "US Employment Situation (October 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-11-06
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2026-12-04
    name: "US Employment Situation (November 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2026-12-04
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

  - id: nfp-2027-01-08
    name: "US Employment Situation (December 2026)"
    tier: 1
    date: 2027-01-08
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm"
    status: projected
    notes: "BLS publishes 2027 schedule in Q4 2026 — verify before month"
    categories: [labour, us, data]

# =============================================================================
# TIER 2 — Commented in weekly note
# =============================================================================

# ISM Manufacturing (first business day of month, 10:00 AM ET)
  - id: ism-mfg-2026-07-01
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-01
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-mfg-2026-08-03
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-03
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-mfg-2026-09-01
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-01
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-mfg-2026-10-01
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-01
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-mfg-2026-11-02
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-02
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-mfg-2026-12-01
    name: "ISM Manufacturing PMI (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-01
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

# ISM Services (third business day of month, 10:00 AM ET)
  - id: ism-svc-2026-07-06
    name: "ISM Services PMI (June 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-06
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-svc-2026-08-05
    name: "ISM Services PMI (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-05
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-svc-2026-09-03
    name: "ISM Services PMI (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-03
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-svc-2026-10-05
    name: "ISM Services PMI (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-05
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-svc-2026-11-04
    name: "ISM Services PMI (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-04
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

  - id: ism-svc-2026-12-03
    name: "ISM Services PMI (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-03
    time: "10:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/"
    categories: [pmi, us, data]

# US PCE (last business week of month, 8:30 AM ET) — projected dates
  - id: pce-2026-07-31
    name: "US PCE (June 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-31
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    notes: "BEA publishes exact dates ~1 week ahead"
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: pce-2026-08-28
    name: "US PCE (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-28
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: pce-2026-09-25
    name: "US PCE (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-25
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: pce-2026-10-30
    name: "US PCE (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-30
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: pce-2026-11-25
    name: "US PCE (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-25
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

  - id: pce-2026-12-23
    name: "US PCE (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-23
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.bea.gov"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, us, data]

# US Retail Sales (mid-month, 8:30 AM ET) — projected dates
  - id: retail-2026-07-16
    name: "US Retail Sales (June 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-16
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

  - id: retail-2026-08-18
    name: "US Retail Sales (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-18
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

  - id: retail-2026-09-15
    name: "US Retail Sales (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-15
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

  - id: retail-2026-10-15
    name: "US Retail Sales (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-15
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

  - id: retail-2026-11-17
    name: "US Retail Sales (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-17
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

  - id: retail-2026-12-15
    name: "US Retail Sales (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-15
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.census.gov/retail/"
    status: projected
    categories: [consumption, us, data]

# Eurozone HICP flash (last week of month, 11:00 CET) — projected
  - id: hicp-2026-07-31
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-31
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

  - id: hicp-2026-08-31
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-31
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

  - id: hicp-2026-09-30
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-30
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

  - id: hicp-2026-10-30
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-30
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

  - id: hicp-2026-11-30
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-30
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

  - id: hicp-2026-12-30
    name: "Eurozone HICP Flash (December 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-30
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Europe/Berlin
    source: "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat"
    status: projected
    categories: [inflation, eurozone, data]

# China NBS Manufacturing PMI (last day of month, 09:00 CST = 02:00 UTC)
  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-07-31
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-31
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    notes: "09:00 CST release; weekend/holiday shifts to next business day"
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-08-31
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-31
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-09-30
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-30
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-10-31
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-31
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-11-30
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-30
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

  - id: cn-pmi-mfg-2026-12-31
    name: "China NBS Manufacturing PMI (December 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-31
    time: "09:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.stats.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [pmi, china, data]

# China credit data (PBOC, mid-month)
  - id: cn-credit-2026-07-15
    name: "China Credit Data (June 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-15
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

  - id: cn-credit-2026-08-13
    name: "China Credit Data (July 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-08-13
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

  - id: cn-credit-2026-09-15
    name: "China Credit Data (August 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-09-15
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

  - id: cn-credit-2026-10-15
    name: "China Credit Data (September 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-15
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

  - id: cn-credit-2026-11-13
    name: "China Credit Data (October 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-11-13
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

  - id: cn-credit-2026-12-15
    name: "China Credit Data (November 2026)"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-12-15
    time: "11:00"
    tz_source: Asia/Shanghai
    source: "http://www.pbc.gov.cn"
    status: projected
    categories: [credit, china, data]

# US Treasury Quarterly Refunding
  - id: refunding-2026-07-29
    name: "US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-07-29
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding"
    notes: "Q3 refunding, covers Aug-Oct auctions"
    categories: [us, fiscal, data]

  - id: refunding-2026-10-28
    name: "US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement"
    tier: 2
    date: 2026-10-28
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding"
    notes: "Q4 refunding, covers Nov-Jan auctions"
    categories: [us, fiscal, data]

  - id: refunding-2027-01-27
    name: "US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement"
    tier: 2
    date: 2027-01-27
    time: "08:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding"
    notes: "Q1 refunding, covers Feb-Apr auctions"
    categories: [us, fiscal, data]

# =============================================================================
# STRUCTURAL — Recurring series
# =============================================================================

# CFTC COT — every Friday 15:30 ET
  - id: cot-friday
    name: "CFTC COT Report"
    tier: structural
    recurrence: weekly-friday
    time: "15:30"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm"
    notes: "Friday release covering Tuesday positions"
    start: 2026-06-19
    end: 2027-06-30
    categories: [positioning, structural]

# GLD gold ETF — daily NAV after US market close
  - id: gld-nav
    name: "Gold ETF Flows (GLD NAV update)"
    tier: structural
    recurrence: weekday
    time: "16:00"
    tz_source: America/New_York
    source: "https://www.spdrgoldshares.com"
    notes: "Daily NAV published after market close"
    start: 2026-06-16
    end: 2027-06-30
    categories: [positioning, commodity, structural]
