---
type: trade-thesis
status: draft
trade-id: YYYY-NNN-SYMBOL-DIR
date: YYYY-MM-DD
author: Dennis Elgegren
invalidation: "concrete fact, not a price"
---

# Pre-Trade Thesis — <TRADE_ID>

**Written BEFORE entry. Timestamped at file creation. Do not edit history after entry — corrections go in management-log.md.**

## 1. Macro driver

The regime shift or fact driving the view. One paragraph.

## 2. Assessment

Reference [[../../00-methodology/decision-process]] and the per-instrument note [[../../06-universe/traded/<INSTRUMENT>]]. State which checklist items triggered this trade, the current reading, and the level at which the assessment resolves toward entry. Discretionary.

## 3. Structure

Outright / spread / option. Why this structure over alternatives. Show you considered convexity and carry.

## 4. Levels

- Entry: <price>
- Stop: <price> (must correspond to invalidation fact)
- Target: <price>
- Risk in bp of NAV: <number> (must be 25-75)
- Position size (contracts): <number>
- Margin used: <number or %> (must keep portfolio margin ≤ 30%)

## 5. Invalidation condition

A fact, not a price. Example: "if core CPI prints >0.4%, thesis is dead."

## 6. Holding period expectation

Days / weeks / months. Why.

## 7. Payoff scenarios

| Scenario | Price path | P&L (bp of NAV) | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | ... | ... | ...% |
| Base | ... | ... | ...% |
| Bear | ... | ... | ...% |

## 8. Predefined add / trim rules

Concrete levels and triggers. Deviations from these in [[management-log]] get flagged.

## 9. Risk framework checks

- [ ] Risk in bp between 25-75
- [ ] Per-bucket cap not exceeded (see [[../../00-methodology/risk-framework#3. Correlation buckets]])
- [ ] Portfolio open-risk after this trade ≤ 250 bp
- [ ] Margin usage after this trade ≤ 30% of equity
- [ ] Invalidation condition is a fact
- [ ] Not inside Tier 1 event blackout window