n2jj" Sr0SS_SS_SS_SS_S S _S S _S S_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_S/SQ_SS _0SS!_S"S#_SS$_SS%_SS&_S S'_S S(_S S)_SS*_SS+_SS,_SS-_SS._SS/_SS0S1/_SS2_0SS3_S"S4_SS$_SS5_SS6_S S'_S S7_S S8_SS*_SS9_SS:_SS;_SS<_SS=_S/S>Q_SS?_0SS@_S"SA_SS$_SSB_SSC_S SD_S S7_S SE_SS*_SSF_SSG_SSH_SSI_SSJ_SS0SK/_SSL_0SSM_S"SN_SSO_SSP_SSQ_S SR_S SS_S ST_SSU_SSV_SSW_SSX_SSY_SSZ_SS[S\/_SS]_0SS^_S"S__SSO_SS`_SSQ_S SR_S SS_S Sa_SSU_SSb_SSc_SSd_SSe_SSf_SS[S\/_SSg_Sh.r0SSi_S"Sj_SS_SSk_SSl_S S _S Sm_S Sn_SS_SSo_SSp_SSq_SSr_SSs_SS[S0/_SSt_0SSu_S"Sv_SS_SSw_SSx_S S _S Sy_S Sz_SS*_SS{_SS|_SSq_SS}_SS~_S/SQ_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S8_SS*_SS_SS_SSq_SS_SS_S/SQ_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S8_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_S/SQ_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SSS/_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_S/SQ_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S _S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS/_SS_S.r0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_S/SQ_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS0S1/_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S _S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SSS0/_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS*_SS_SS_SS_SS_SS_SSS/_SS_0SS_S"S_SS_SS_SS_S S_S S_S S_SS*_SS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGSGS/_SGS_GS.r0SGS_S"GS _SS_SGS _SGS _S GS _S GS _S S)_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS_S/GSQ_SGS_0SGS_S"GS_SSO_SGS_SGS_S SR_S GS_S GS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS_SGS _SGS!_SS[GS"/_SGS#_GS$.rGS%GS&GS'GS(GS)GS*GS+GS,GS-.GS.GS/GS0GS1GS2GS3GS4GS5.GS6GS7GS8GS9GS:GS;GS<.GS=GS>GS?GS@GSAGSBGS<.GSCGSDGSEGSFGSGGSHGS<.GSIGSJGSKGSLGSMGSNGS<.GSOGSPGSQGSRGSSGSTGS<.GSUGSVGSWGSXGSYGSZGS<.GS[.rGS\GS]GS^GS_GS`GSaGSb.GScGSdGSeGSfGSgGShGSb.GSiGSjGSkGSlGSmGSnGSb.GSoGSpGSqGSrGSsGStGSb.GSuGSvGSwGSxGSyGSzGSb.GS{GS|GS}GS~GSGSGSb.GS.rGg(u Coverage universe data — sourced from ~/Obsidian-Macro/06-universe/. Each entry is the canonical reference for the deck builder. Specs marked (ref) should be verified against current exchange circulars. namezSOFR 3M FuturesexchangeCME underlyingz:3-month compounded SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) tick_sizez0.0025 (1 bp on 3M rate) tick_valuez$12.50 contract_sizez$$1,000,000 notional, 3-month depositmarginz~$1,400 initial (varies)sessionz*CME Globex Sun-Fri 6pm-5pm ET (almost 24h) tick_notezAIMM-quarterly months (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec); serial months also listedprimary_driverz4Fed funds path expectations (SOFR tracks Fed policy)secondary_driverz?Front-end T-bill supply/shortage, repo market stress, RRP usagebucketzRates (front-end / short-rate) best_spreadz8SR3 vs fed funds futures basis (imm-period spread trade) key_reportszIFOMC, Fed minutes, monthly T-bill refunding, SOFR/SOFR index prints daily tier1_events)FOMCz Fed minuteszTreasury refundingcommon_misreadzlConfusing SOFR 3M futures (CME) with SOFR OIS swaps (LCH/CME cleared); futures are convexity-adjusted vs OISz2y UST FuturescodeZTzCBOT/CMEzj2-year US Treasury note (currently 6% coupon notional, but deliverable basket has lowest price to deliver)z1/64 of a point (0.015625)z$15.625z$200,000 face valuez~$1,200 initialzCME Globex Sun-Fri 6pm-5pm ETz-Fed policy expectations over the next 2 yearszKNear-term inflation prints, front-end supply (T-bills/coupons), 2y/FF basiszRates (front-end)zNZT vs SR3 (front-end rate vs short-rate); ZT vs ZN (2s10s steepener/flattener)z5FOMC, CPI, NFP, Treasury refunding, 2y/5y/7y auctionsrUS CPIzxConfusing CTD (cheapest-to-deliver) shifts with directional views; deliverable basket narrows in low-coupon environmentsz10y UST FuturesZNz-10-year US Treasury note (notional 6% coupon)z1/64 of a pointz$100,000 face valuez~$1,800 initialuE10y nominal yield — driven by real yields + 10y breakeven inflationz;Term premium, foreign demand (JGB/Treasury spread), QT pathz Rates (belly)zHZN vs ZB (10s30s); ZT vs ZN (2s10s curve); ZN vs Bund (US-DE 10y spread)z(FOMC, US 10y/30y auctions, CPI, NFP, ISM)rrNFPz10y Treasury auctionzTreating ZN price move as 'rates move' without decomposing into real + breakeven; in 2022-2023 era, real yields did most of the workz30y UST FuturesZBz-30-year US Treasury bond (notional 6% coupon)z1/32 of a pointz$31.25z~$3,500 initialu@Long-end yield — sensitive to term premium, QT, foreign demandzKPension demand (LDI flow), mortality/longevity hedging, fiscal supply fearszRates (long-end)z5ZB vs ZN (10s30s flattener/steepener); ZB vs Bund 30yzG30y Treasury auction, FOMC, long-term inflation expectations (TIPS 30y)z30y Treasury auctionzsLong-end is more about term premium + supply/demand than rate path expectations; recent fiscal supply has dominatedzSchatz Futuresz FGBS / SchatzEurexz&German 2-year government bond (Schatz)z 0.01% (1 bp)u€10u€100,000 face valueu Eurex standard (~€1,000-2,000)z0Eurex 8:00-22:00 CET (extended to 2:00 next day)z/ECB deposit rate expectations over next 2 yearsu9EUR short-end basis (€STR), Bund-Schatz spread dynamicszRates (EU front-end)u5Schatz vs Bund (2s10s EU curve); Schatz vs €STR OISz"ECB, Eurozone HICP, German ZEW/IFOECBz Eurozone CPIzkEUR short-end is structurally tighter than USD front-end in deep negative-rate regimes; carry dynamics flipz Bund Futuresz FGBL / Bundz9German 10-year government bond (Bund, notional 6% coupon)zEurex standardzGerman 10y nominal yieldzQECB QT (PEPP/APP reinvestment), fiscal rule changes (debt brake), Bund-BTP spreadzRates (EU belly)zIBund vs ZN (US-DE 10y spread); Bund vs BTP (Bund-BTP widening/tightening)z+ECB, Eurozone HICP, German/Italian auctionsukBund is not just 'the safe asset' — in flight-to-quality it widens vs Treasuries initially, then tightens)SR3rrrSCHATZBUNDzEUR/USD Futures6EzEuro vs US Dollarz0.0001 (1 pip)u €125,000z~$2,300 initialzQEUR-US rate differential (ECB Fed policy gap), risk sentiment, EUR terms-of-tradez8Energy prices (EUR importer), China/EUR trade, EU fiscalz FX (core)z,6E vs 6J (EUR/JPY risk barometer); 6E vs DXYz#ECB, Fed/FOMC, Eurozone CPI, US CPIudEUR/USD falls on strong US data even when EUR fundamentals are improving — relative rates dominatezJPY/USD Futures6JzJapanese Yen vs US Dollarz!0.000001 (1/100 of a pip, 'ichi')u ¥12,500,000z~$2,400 initialz0US-JP rate differential (BoJ ultra-loose vs Fed)zTRisk sentiment (JPY safe-haven), BoJ YCC/policy normalization, Japan current accountzV6J vs ES (risk-on/risk-off barometer); 6J vs 6E (EUR/JPY); 6J vs ZN (yen-funded carry)z-BoJ, US Treasury yields, NFP, risk-off events)BoJrrunJPY safe-haven bid is asymmetric — much stronger on US equity sell-offs than BoJ hawkish surprise can offsetzGBP/USD Futures6BzBritish Pound vs US Dollarz0.0001z$6.25u£62,500z0BoE-Fed rate differential, UK fiscal credibilityz@UK current account deficit (financing), Brexit tail risk, energyz+6B vs 6E (EUR/GBP cross); 6B vs gilt yieldsz5BoE, UK CPI, UK fiscal events (budget, gilt auctions))BoErzUK CPIupGBP is structurally sensitive to UK fiscal credibility — gilt sell-offs drag sterling even when BoE is hawkishzAUD/USD Futures6AzAustralian Dollar vs US Dollarz$10.00z A$100,000z9China demand / global growth cycle + RBA-Fed differentialz+Iron ore prices, RBA policy, risk sentimentzFX (USD-bloc / commodity)z:6A vs HG (copper); 6A vs ES (risk-on barometer); 6A vs NZDz)RBA, China PMI/credit data, iron ore, NFP)RBA China PMIruwAUD rallies on China stimulus do not always translate to broad risk-on — China-specific AUD bid can decouple from S&PzCAD/USD Futures6CzCanadian Dollar vs US Dollarz C$100,000z~$1,500 initialz+WTI crude oil prices (CAD is petrocurrency)z2BoC-Fed differential, USMCA risk, Canadian housingzF6C vs CL (petrocurrency proxy); 6C vs 6A (AUD/CAD); 6C vs 6M (CAD/MXN)z#BoC, WTI crude, Canadian employmentBoCzWTI crude inventoryzfCAD correlation with crude breaks when oil moves are supply-driven (OPEC) vs demand-driven (recession)zMXN/USD Futures6MzMexican Peso vs US Dollarz0.00001 (1/10 of a pip)z$5.00z MXN 500,000z2Banxico-Fed rate differential (carry trade), USMCAzFOil (Mexico exporter), remittances, election cycles, Trump tariff riskzFX (EM / commodity)z(6M vs 6C (CAD/MXN); 6M vs ES (beta play)z Banxico, USMCA news, Mexican CPI)BanxicorzUS-Mexico tariff newsu^MXN is highest-carry G10-ish currency — vulnerable to risk-off + carry unwind simultaneouslyzCHF/USD Futures6SzSwiss Franc vs US Dollarz CHF 125,000z~$2,200 initialzRisk-off flows + SNB policyzKEUR/CHF floor (historic, now defunct but policy residue), safe-haven demandzFX (safe-haven)z/6S vs 6J (CHF/JPY safe-haven cross); 6S vs BundzSNB, Swiss CPI, risk-off eventsSNBzbCHF/USD proxy is actually USD/CHF inverted; SNB intervention targets EUR/CHF, not CHF/USD directly)rr r"r$r'r)r+z Gold FuturesGCzCOMEX (CME Group)uGold (≥99.5% purity)z$0.10/ozz 100 troy ozz~$8,000-10,000 initial (varies)zHCME Globex Sun-Fri 6pm-5pm ET (almost 24h); London fix 10:30 + 15:00 GMTz3US 10y real yields (inverse); USD (inverse via DXY)zSCentral bank buying, ETF flows (GLD), geopolitics, inflation expectations, risk-offzCommodity (precious)z:GC vs SI (gold/silver ratio); GC vs real yields; GC vs DXYzFFOMC, US CPI, NFP, PCE, CFTC COT, ETF flows, central bank reserve data)rrruReal yields are dominant driver in QE/QT regimes, but in crisis regimes (war, banking stress) gold rallies despite higher real yields — correlation breakszSilver FuturesSICOMEXuSilver (≥99.9% purity)z$0.005/oz (0.5 cent)z$25.00 (contract = 5,000 oz)z 5,000 troy ozz~$7,000 initialzBSame as gold (real yields, USD) but with industrial demand overlayzSSolar/electronics demand, gold/silver ratio mean reversion, silver squeeze dynamicsz&Commodity (precious/industrial hybrid)z?SI vs GC (gold/silver ratio); SI vs HG (industrial metals beta)z-Same as gold + Silver Institute supply/demanduSilver's dual identity (50% precious/50% industrial) means it can rally on inflation AND rally on growth — different from goldzCopper FuturesHGzGrade 1 cathode copperz$0.0005/lb (half a cent)z 25,000 lbsz~$4,500 initialzIChina property + manufacturing demand; global growth proxy ('Dr. Copper')z:Mine supply (Chile, Peru, DRC), smelter TC/RC margins, USDz#Commodity (industrial / base metal)zKHG vs GC (copper/gold ratio = growth proxy); HG vs 6A (AUD); HG vs iron orez6China PMI/credit impulse, LME inventories, mine outputr&z|Copper often leads global PMI by 3-6 months; the copper/gold ratio falling is one of the cleanest recession signals in macrozWTI Crude Oil FuturesCLzNYMEX (CME Group)z)West Texas Intermediate light sweet crudez $0.01/barrelz 1,000 barrelsz~$5,500 initialz5Global demand (growth, China); OPEC+ supply decisionszMUSD, geopolitical risk premia, US shale breakevens, SPR releases, inventorieszCommodity (energy)zLCL vs Brent (WTI-Brent spread); CL vs 6C (CAD); CL vs HG (industrial demand)zMEIA weekly inventory (Wed), Baker Hughes rig count (Fri), OPEC+ JMMC meetingsz EIA inventoryz OPEC+ meetinguyOPEC+ cuts can rally oil but signal demand concerns — interpretation depends on whether move is supply or demand-drivenzNatural Gas FuturesNGNYMEXzHenry Hub natural gasz$0.001/MMBtu (0.1 cent)z 10,000 MMBtuz!~$3,500 initial (highly variable)z$Weather (HDD/CDD), LNG export demandzWStorage levels vs 5-year average, shale production decline rates, Haynesville/MarcelluszCommodity (energy, high-vol)zCNG vs JKM (US-Asia LNG spread); NG vs coal (spark spread for power)z8EIA weekly storage (Thu), weather forecasts, LNG feedgasz EIA storagezwinter storm eventsuNG is the highest-vol commodity in the universe — sizing must be 1/3 to 1/5 of oil position; option-implied vol often 50-100%)r-r.r0r1r2zS&P 500 Micro E-mini FuturesMESz S&P 500 Indexz0.25 index pointsz$1.25u$5 × S&P 500 indexz30 = stress; >40 = crisiszCTerm structure (contango vs backwardation), VVIX (vol-of-vol), skew)rr6r9r8r r:r;zGold/Silver Ratio (GSR)zGC/SIuHGC price ÷ SI price; typically 60-80 range, can spike to 100+ in stressu8Cross-commodity signal — precious metals risk appetiteu~GSR ↑ = fear (gold bid relative to silver) = deflationary/credit stress; GSR ↓ = silver outperformance = industrial demandukRatio can stay elevated for years — trade mean-reversion requires catalyst (silver squeeze, solar demand))rr6r9r8r:r;zCopper/Gold Ratio (CGR)zHG/GCzXRatio of copper price to gold price (often rebased to 100 or measured in relative terms)u9Global growth proxy — 'Dr. Copper' vs 'fear trade gold'uICGR ↑ = growth optimism, reflation; CGR ↓ = recession fear dominatingu[One of the cleanest macro regime indicators — turning points often lead PMI by 3-6 monthsz 10y Real Yields (TIPS/Breakeven)zDFII10 / T10YIEu]Real yield = TIPS yield (DFII10). 10y breakeven = nominal 10y UST − 10y TIPS yield (T10YIE)z/Real-rate driver for gold, duration assets, USDzRising real yields = headwind for gold, long-duration assets, growth equities. Rising breakevens = inflation expectations rising (commodity bullish)uRDecomposing ZN move into real + breakeven matters — different macro implicationsz'High Yield OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread)z/ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS / HYG as proxyzfSpread of HY corporate yields over Treasury curve, adjusted for embedded options (prepayment, default)z!Credit conditions / risk appetitezWOAS <350bp = risk-on/credit euphoria; 350-500bp = normal stress; >600bp = credit crisiszTHY OAS leads equity drawdowns in late-cycle; widening often precedes HY ETF outflowszUSD/CNH (Offshore Yuan)USDCNHzVOffshore CNH vs USD; CNY is onshore (controlled), CNH is offshore (more market-driven)z'China risk gauge, EM pressure indicatoruyUSDCNH ↑ = yuan weakening = China stimulus pressure + EM carry stress; USDCNH ↓ = yuan strengthening = global risk-onzOPBOC fix (daily 9:15 Beijing) sets the tone; CNH-CNY spread = offshore pressureBitcoinzBTC-USDzODecentralized digital asset; supply capped at 21M; halving cycle every ~4 yearsz5Regime indicator only (per PDF); liquidity/risk proxyupBTC ↑ in real-yield-down environment = liquidity trade; BTC decoupled from risk-on = niche, often USD-specificzkETF flows (since Jan 2024) have shifted BTC into institutional flow regime; not a pure retail asset anymore)DXYVIXGSRCGR REAL_YIELDSHY_OASr<BTCzFederal Open Market Committeez48 scheduled meetings per year (approx every 6 weeks)zfFed sets target range for federal funds rate; releases SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) quarterlyzrUs" ! E  R  /   h   ?   ,  ?  X  P  ]  2  Q  b  E  I! $     J  C   1   i   .  #  2  I  i  %  g  N  *  U! $ !   J  E   &   i   .  #  2  a  Y  /  a  A  I  a! $ !   J  E   &   h   .  #  2  \  i  $  N  `  !78  P! $  G >  ^  g  0 4 E K W ( N ; / H!$     G  Q   ^   g   0  "  E  4  o  $  b  D  /  H! wm ` !   E  )   %   h     #  ?  m  V  +  E  <    A! $ !   E  1   8   h     #  2  L  r  +  o  F  .  K! $ !   E  2   X   g     #  2  L  ^  +  D  N  1  M! $ !   E  6   X   h     #  2  U  I  -  S  B  3  T! $ !   E  4   X   h     #  2  G  P  -  _  <   56  C! $ !   E  1   .   g     #  2  N  d  '  A  9  D  z! $ !   E  0   X   h     #  2  7  i  #  H  8    ~! [D    '  .   Z   h     3  ]  O  q  (  S  _  1  y! $     G  0   +   4     #  2  ^  q  :  X  F  *  ]! $     G  .   /   h     #  2  e  X  7  d  O  f-  Y! $ '   '  A   ^   h     #  2  Q  k  &  e  f  /:  V! $ %   G  -   .   h     5  2  @  u  0  \  Q  (=>  \! S[ | .   E  o   (   g   .  #  Q  Q  X  .  X  =  1  ! $ &   G  A   _   g   )  4  )  R  `  %  O  D  /  U! '% V(m*Bbq\ .c&U\Z *_IZC  *oJdr  3#t@pi :C}2rk *m8Uf fFLC  yD  R0KxPxe  0.pJ]S  -,X@rT  :Tm$pe  &WV#a_  -&W"k[  S1 rS